Integration of multiple scenario hypotheses forscenario simulation

A-DEWS 2015: Design Engineering in the Context of Asia, Asian Design Engineering workshop, 29th - 30th October 2015, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Year: 2015
Author: Komoto, Hitoshi; Kishita, Yusuke; Kondo, Shinsuke; Masui, Keijiro
Institution: Advanced Manufacturing Research Institute (AMRI)National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)Tsukuba, Japan
Section: Design for Asia
Page(s): 162-166

Abstract

In the early stage of product-service systems (PSS)
design, which provide products and services in a long-term,
designers suppose hypotheses regarding possible changes of future
market situation. In order to define target markets and specify
customer requirements, they develop scenarios of the target
market considering other available scenarios about society and
technology. In order to quantitatively verify such integrated
scenarios, numerical simulation of a scenario are effective. The
paper analyzes topological relations among the hypotheses in
scenarios with various resolutions and studies how the hypotheses
are integrated into a single system equation, which is solved
iteratively in system simulation.

Keywords: simulation, modellling, scenario analysis